The Archive
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The Archive
Watchlist
A composite 0–100 score derived from eight leading indicators that historically precede Section 139 intervention. Higher = more concerning. This is a working signal, not a forecast — sensitivity testing pending.
Critical (70+)
0
High (50–70)
5
Elevated (30–50)
83
Total ranked
100
52
High
52
High
52
High
52
High
50
High
48
Elevated
48
Elevated
48
Elevated
48
Elevated
48
Elevated
47
Elevated
47
Elevated
47
Elevated
47
Elevated
45
Elevated
45
Elevated
45
Elevated
45
Elevated
44
Elevated
44
Elevated
44
Elevated
44
Elevated
43
Elevated
42
Elevated
42
Elevated
42
Elevated
41
Elevated
41
Elevated
41
Elevated
41
Elevated
40
Elevated
40
Elevated
40
Elevated
40
Elevated
40
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
39
Elevated
38
Elevated
38
Elevated
38
Elevated
38
Elevated
38
Elevated
38
Elevated
37
Elevated
37
Elevated
37
Elevated
37
Elevated
37
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
36
Elevated
35
Elevated
34
Elevated
34
Elevated
34
Elevated
34
Elevated
34
Elevated
34
Elevated
33
Elevated
33
Elevated
33
Elevated
32
Elevated
32
Elevated
32
Elevated
31
Elevated
31
Elevated
31
Elevated
31
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
30
Elevated
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
29
Watch
Methodology
Eight indicators contribute to the composite score (capped at 100): audit-opinion downgrade or current adverse/disclaimer (max 20), irregular/fruitless/unauthorised expenditure scale (max 20), aged-creditor exposure (max 15), cash runway (max 15), critically underspent conditional grants (max 10), unresolved Material Irregularities older than 18 months (max 10), CFO churn over the last 3 years (max 5), and active Section 139 intervention (max 5). Indicators with no source data contribute 0 — coverage shown per row. This is a draft signal, not a forecast.